Im Jahr 2003 war ich auf der Suche, habe meinen eigenen Zyklus gesucht. Auf dieser Suche bin ich auch auf den Namen Kondratieff ( eigentlich russisch Kondratjew) gestoßen. Auf die Kondratieff-Zyklen bzw. auf seine langen Weltkonjukturwellen und auch auf den Österreicher Joseph Schumpeter.
Nikolai Dmitrijewitsch Kondratjew war ein sowjetischer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler, der sich auch als Statistiker mit dem legendären Fünf-Jahres-Plan der Sowjetunion beschäftigt hat. Und er ist schon früh drauf gekommen, dass das mit der Realität nicht übereinstimmt. So hat er sich schon früh mit langen Wellen – Zyklen beschäftigt und ist auf seine Kondratieff-Zyklen gekommen.
Seine Ansichten haben sich mit Stalins Politik und der Wirtschaftssicht nicht ganz gedeckt – Nikolai Kondratjew hat das im Jahr 1938 mit dem Tode bezahlt. Gott sei Dank seine Zyklus-Theorie hat überlebt – und ich finde sie sind nun treffender denn je.
Jedenfalls hat Kondratjew schon früh erkannt, dass es Zyklen gibt, die sich über 50 bis 60 Jahre erstrecken – und das ganz wichtige dabei: Diese Periode betrifft nämlich unser ganzes Leben – von der Arbeitswelt, der gesamten Wirtschaft, der Gesellschaft, über die Politik, von der Umwelt bis hin zu unserem Wohlstand – sprich alles. Und dies kommt in Wellen – siehe auch Joseph Schumpeter, der das Werk von Kondratjew erst richtig mit seinen Langen Wellen publik gemacht hat.
Das Prinzip hinter den Kondratieff-Zyklen ist, dass durch eine Basis-Innovation (Erfindung) ein gesamter Zyklus dominiert wird. Durch einen Mangel – zum Beispiel beim Transport – wird eine Basis-Innovation – Stahl / Schiene / Eisenbahn – der Motor für einen Zyklus über 50 Jahre. Mit dieser Basis-Innovation wird anfangs bei der Produktivität ein Beschleunigungs-Faktor von mindestens Mal 10 erreicht. Ganz wichtig dabei: Ein Kondratieff-Zyklus wird immer nur von einer Nation dominiert – eine weitere Regel: höchstens zwei hintereinander liegende Zyklen können von der gleichen Nation dominiert werden.
- Kondratieff-Zyklus = Dampf-Zyklus = die Erfindung der Dampfmaschine:
James Watt hat die Dampfmaschine nicht erfunden – er hat sie technisch verbessert und so den Durchbruch geschafft. Es waren die Englischen Baumwoll-Produzenten, die diese Maschinen eingesetzt haben. Der klassische händische Webstuhl mit Fußbetrieb wird durch Dampfmaschinen und Keilriehmenantrieben ersetzt. damit sind Produktionsgewinne mit Faktoren von 10 und mehr möglich. Bekannt ist diese Epoche als 1. industrielle Revolution.
Es waren aber auch dann genau diese Produktionszugewinne, die einen Mangel ausgelöst haben. Die Wolle und deren Produzenten hat es vor allem im Nord-Westen Englands gegeben – die Absatzmärkte waren aber in den Großstädten wie z.B. London. Und damals hat es nur Pferdefuhrwerke, Maulesel und Schiffe gegeben, die die Waren transportiert haben. Aus diesem Mangel ist dann die nächste Basisinnovation entstanden. Das Stahlwesen, mit Brücken aber auch mit Schienen für das Eisenbahnwesen. Dies führte zum nächsten Zyklus.
2. Kondratieff-Zyklus = Stahl-Zyklus = die Bearbeitung des Stahls = Eisenbahnwesen:
Es war die besondere Bearbeitung des Stahls – vor allem erstklassigen Stahls – dass das Empire zu dieser Größe hat wachsen lassen. Vor allem die imperialistische Politik der Insel wurde durch die Eisenbahn erst möglich. So wurde nicht nur das Know How für das Eisenbahnwesen nach Amerika exportiert. Auch das Geld dafür kam von der Insel. Das gleiche galt auch in Australien und auch in Indien. Es lebe das Great Empire – es lebe der spätere Common Wealth (= Verbreiteter Reichtum ).
• 3. Kondratieff-Zyklus = Elektro-Zyklus = Generatoren statt Kohle
Der Elektrozyklus wurde von einer neuen Nation am Weltmarkt beherrscht. Es war Deutschland. Gleichzeitig waren es zwei Namen die diesen Zyklus beeinflussten. Emil Rathenau – AEG ( angewandte Elektrizitäts Aktiengesellschaft) und Werner von Siemens. Berlin wurde zur „Elektropolis“. Und vom einfachen Dynamo über spezielle E-Motoren bis hin zu Generatoren, Kupferdrahtaufwickelmaschinen usw. waren die Innovationen der damaligen Zeit.
Um diesen Zyklus aber zu verstehen, gehe ich in der Geschichte zurück. Es war zu Zeiten Maria Theresia. Damals war noch üblich, dass es Kinderarbeit gegeben hat. England hat seine Kinder in den Kohlengruben werken lassen. Hingegen wurde im Habsburgerreich 1774 und auch in Deutschland zu Zeiten Friedrich Wilhelm I. die Schulpflicht eingeführt.
Eigentlicher Hintergrund der Schulpflicht war aber das Militär. Denn die haben sich bei den Regenten beschwert, dass sie mit der Konstitution der Jugendlichen / jungen Männern keinen Krieg gewinnen können. Denn aufgrund der vorherrschenden wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen war Kinderarbeit vorherrschend und die menschlichen Ressourcen für einen Sieg im Krieg nicht gegeben.
Somit hat sich in Deutschland und Österreich die Schulpflicht durchgesetzt.
Den Streit gab es damals aber mit den Bauern – knapp 80 Prozent der Bevölkerung waren damals in der Landwirtschaft tätig. Die brauchten die Kinder für die Ernte im Sommer. Den Kompromiss gibt es bis heute – die Sommerferien in den Monaten Juli und August. Ein Gesetz, das die Agrargesellschaft, die Industriegesellschaft und meines Erachtens nun auch die Dienstleistungsgesellschaft überlebt hat. Bezüglich neuer Gesellschaft (ab 2021) komme ich später nochmals zurück.
Jedenfalls die Schulpflicht und die damit verbundene Alphabetisierung waren die Grundlage für den 3. Kondratieff-Zyklus. Denn gerade in Deutschland hat sich auch das Verlagswesen anders durchgesetzt als in England. Während man auf der Insel die Urheberrechte wahrte bzw. Bücher nur für den Adel zu gängig war (Bücher waren Schmöker und mit Gravuren, Prägungen und Ornamenten als Unikate gehandelt), hat man in Deutschland vom Apfelstrudel-Backen, über das Wachsen der Stiefmütterchen bis hin zu Tagebüchern alles veröffentlich. Auf die Urheberrechte hat man verzichtet und so konnte jeder schriftstellerisch tätig werden und jeder was lesen, was ihn interessierte.
Aus dieser Zeit (ab 1867) sind auch die kleinen im Format 10 x 15,8 cm großen gelben Reclam-Hefte entstanden. Mittlerweile Millionen-Mal verkauft. Jedenfalls die Durchdringung der Alphabetisierung in der Bevölkerung setzte sich in Deutschland durch und dadurch ist es möglich gewesen, höher wertige Produkte und auch zu erzeugen.
Elektrischer Strom war die künftige Kraft für die Maschinen, Licht für Städte, Kommunikation, ein Katalysator für chemische Prozesse, Wärme für den Haushalt bis hin zu Hitze für den Hochofen. Der 3. Kondratieff-Zyklus verändert die Arbeitsorganisation, die Betriebsgrößen, den Bau von Maschinen und dies geht ohne eine gebildete Bevölkerung nicht. Die Verwaltung in den Unternehmen wächst und der preußische Staat schaffte dies am besten und perfektionierte seine Bürokratie schon lange vor der Wirtschaft und den anderen Staaten.
Und damit schaffte Deutschland nicht nur mehr Wohlstand, sondern auch die Bevölkerung wuchs zwischen 1890 und dem ersten Weltkrieg von 49 auf 66 Millionen an. Auch die Rüstungsindustrie wurde hochgeschaukelt – auch ein Grund warum es zum Ersten Weltkrieg kam.
Einige Zahlen dazu: Im ersten Weltkrieg sind deutsche Truppen auch deswegen so effizient, weil die Grundschulausbildug der Soldaten weit besser war als in anderen europäischen Ländern: In Italien konnten 330 von 1000 Rekruten nicht lesen, in Österreich-Ungarn waren es 220 von 1000, in Frankreich waren es 68 von 1000 und in Deutschland war es 1 (einer) von 1000. Kein Wunder also, dass es den Deutschen besser gelungen ist, für den wachsenden Bedarf des 3. Kondratieff-Zyklus mehr Laboranten auszubilden, Elektriker zu schulen oder z. B. Wissen über die Verwendung von Düngemittel schriftlich an Bauern zu vermitteln.
Aber es war auch das Hochfahren der Rüstungsindustrie und die Veränderung des wirtschaftlichen Machtgewichtes ein Grund, warum es zum ersten Weltkrieg gekommen ist. Denn für Frankreich und England war Preußen mit der neuen wirtschaftlichen Dominanz ein Dorn im Auge.
Bei den Habsburgern war es etwas anders – wir haben geschichtlich zurück geschaut sehr selten Kriege gewonnen und das Militär hat sich einfach überschätzt. Das Habsburgerreich wurde ja nur deswegen so groß, weil es die Heiratspolitik perfektionierte.
• 4. Kondratieff-Zyklus = Petrochechmischer-Zyklus = Auto, Mobilität & Chemie
Für mich persönlich überschneiden sich immer wieder diese Zyklen. Während der alte Zyklus sich dem Ende neigt, zeigt sich schon der nächste Zyklus zum Teil mit den ersten Basis-Innovationen. Während der 3. Kondratieff-Zyklus mit der Weltwirtschaftskrise der 1920er/1930er Jahre zu Ende ging, hat sich der 4. Kondratieff-Zyklus bereits im späten 19. Jahrhundert angekündigt. Rockefeller war einer der Pioniere – ab den 1870er Jahren begann er mit Standard-Oil den Amerikanischen Markt mit Öl zu versorgen. Und so war Amerika auch fast ein Jahrhundert lang die erdölfördernde Nation Nummer 1 – bis lange hinein ins 20. Jahrhundert (genau bis 1975 – und erst 2017 hat Amerika durch Fracking diese Position wieder erlangt).
Retour zum 4. Kondratieff. Jedenfalls der neue Aufschwung kam mit dem Auto und der Petrochemie. Er markierte den Höhepunkt der Industriegesellschaft und brachte den Massenverkehr auf der Straße und später auch in der Luft. Schon zu beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts schrieb hier Henry Ford mit seinem legendären Modell T Geschichte, der nicht nur die Automobilbanche mit neuen Produktionsmöglichkeiten (Fließband) revolutionierte, sondern auch damit den Individualverkehr erst möglich machte.
Vertreter des Amreikanischen Traum am Highway waren damals Ford, General Motors, Chevrolet, Chrysler usw.
Kleine Episode zwischen den Herstellern: Bei Daimler & Benz vertrat man Anfang des 20. Jahrhunderts die Meinung, dass sich das Auto nicht als Massenverkehrsmittel eignet. Die Begründung dazu: Es gibt nicht genügend Chauffeure die die Edelkarossen steuern könnten.
Es sind oft nur die unterschiedlichen Denkansätze, die Innovationen zum Durchbruch bringen (später betrifft dies Apple & IBM).
Jedenfalls war das Automobil eines der Basisinnovationen für diesen Zyklus. Aber auch generell die Raffinierung und „Weiterbearbeitung“ von Erdöl waren hier die Motoren des Zyklus. Egal ob Reifenherstellung, Plastikverpackung bis in zum Düngemittel, heute wissen wir als Normalbürger gar nicht, wo überall petrochemische Prozesse notwendig sind, um unsere Konsumgesellschaft aufrecht zu erhalten.
Der vierte Kondratieff ging mit den massiven Ölpreiserhöhungen der OPEC in den späten 1970er Jahren zu Ende.
• 5. Kondratieff-Zyklus = Digital revolutioniert die analoge Welt
In den Mittleren 30er Jahren, also schon vor dem 2. Weltkrieg, wurden die ersten Erfindungen und Gehversuche für den nächsten Kondratieff-Zyklus gelegt. Die Antriebsenergie für diesen neuen Zyklus kam aus der computerbasierten Informationstechnik.
Im Jahre 1935 stellt IMB die erste Lochkartengenerierte Rechenmaschine vor. (Sie schaffte 1 Mulitplikation pro Sekunde – 1.500 Maschinen wurden davon verkauft.)
Ab 1941 baute Konrad Zuse die erste funktionstüchtige programmgesteuerte binäre Rechenmaschine, bestehend aus einer großen Zahl von Relais, die Zuse Z3.
Auf das Jahr 1943 wird auch die angeblich von IBM-Chef Thomas J. Watson stammende Aussage „Ich glaube, es gibt einen weltweiten Bedarf an vielleicht fünf Computern.“ datiert.
Unser Mailüfterl wurde ab 1955 an der TU Wien von Heinz Zemanek gebaut. Der Erbauer spielte hinsichtlich der Benennung in einem Zitat auf die in den USA in Betrieb genommenen Röhrenrechner an: „Wenn es auch nicht die rasante Rechengeschwindigkeit amerikanischer Modelle erreichen kann, die ‚Wirbelwind‘ oder ‚Taifun‘ heißen, so wird es doch für ein Wiener ‚Mailüfterl‘ reichen.“
Der Rechner damals bestand aus 3.000 Transistoren, 5.000 Dioden, 1.000 Montageplättchen, 100.000 Lötstellen, 15.000 Widerständen, 5.000 Kondensatoren und 20.000 Metern Schaltdraht. Mit einem Gewicht von rund 500 Kilogramm sowie einer Breite von 4 Metern, einer Höhe von 2,5 Metern und einer Tiefe von 50 Zentimetern war die Anlage gegenüber den zeitgenössischen Röhrenrechnern vergleichsweise klein. Das Mailüfterl hatte eine damals beachtliche Taktfrequenz von 132 kHz.
Ab den 70er und 80er Jahren erst wurden die Namen IBM, Commodore, Atari, Synclair, Intel, Motorola, Olivetti, Siemens-Nixdorff und vor allem Apple bekannt, aber nur wenige haben wirklich den Sprung ins jetzige Jahrtausend geschafft.
Mit ständig zunehmender Geschwindigkeit durchdrang die Informationstechnik alle Bereiche der Gesellschaft und verwandelte die Welt informationell in ein Dorf. Mit dem fünften Kondratieff ging die Industrie-Gesellschaft in die Informations-Gesellschaft über. Wirtschaftswachstum definiert sich seither vor allem als Wachstum des Informationssektors.
Aufzeigen will ich damit, welchen Zeitraum es bedarf von einer ersten kleinen Erfindung, über eine wirkliche Innovation (zuerst Röhrenkondensatoren über integrierte Schaltkreise bis hin zu den jetzigen Quad-Prozessoren [ 4 Rechner in einem ] usw.) bis hin zur Marktdurchdringung dauert es so an die 60 bis 80 Jahre.
So hat Kondratieff bereits 1935 vorhergesagt, dass sich der 5. Kondratieff-Zyklus ab Anfang 2000 abschwächt. Und rückblickend hat er auch Recht. Zu diesem Zeitpunkt ist auch die Dot-Com-Blase eingetreten. Aber auch selbst unter Anbetracht des Mooreschen Gesetz, dass sich alle 18 Monate die Rechengeschwindigkeit verdoppelt, der Speicherplatz doppelt so groß ist und dass sich die Hardwarekosten gegenüber der Beschleunigung verringert, würden für einen weiteren Aufschwung dafür sprechen. Es waren die fehlenden weiteren Innovations- und Produktivitätssteigerungen, die für die Abschwächung verantwortlich waren. Hat man in den 70er und 80er Jahren noch Produktivitätssteigerungen von 60 bis 120 Prozent pro Jahr und Investition gehabt, so verflacht sich diese Kurve ab den 2000er Jahren auf wenige Prozentpunkte. Kein Buchhaltungs-Programm ist seither schneller geworden. Kein Desktop-Publishing-Programm wurde innovativer und schneller. Kein neuer Rechner, der mehrere tausend Euro kostet, schafft eine Produktivitätssteigerung. Nur als Beispiele. Der Faktor Mensch als Eingabestation, ist der Bremser – das hat sich erst mit der APP-Entwicklung geändert – das zähle ich aber schon zum 6. Kondratieff-Zyklus.
Jedenfalls das was wir in den Zeiten von 2000 bis jetzt geschaffen haben, ist nur eines: die Welt ist viel komplexer geworden und wird sind in eine Richtung abgedriftet, dass wir nur mehr Spezialisten für jeden einzelnen Schritt brauchen, um unser (Arbeits-) Leben zu bewerkstelligen. Das wurde vor allem in den letzten Jahren immer mühsamer. Ich kann dies nur bestätigen. Habe ich in den Jahren 1998 und 1999 noch Datenbanken für meine Firma damals in wenigen Tagen programmiert, brauche ich in der Zwischenzeit mit der gesamten Umgebungsebene Wochen ja bis Monate eine solche umzusetzen. Von Behördenverfahren ganz zu schweigen. Ich erinnere nur an den Bau des Berliner Flughafens BER … Eine never Ending-Story, die wenn ich mir das heutige Flugaufkommen anschaue, denn würde Berlin mit einem Flughafen auch auskommen … Ein sinnvollles Überdenken der 3. Piste für Wien / Schwechat wäre auch für die Verantwortlichen dringend notwendig.
Und das gehört auch zum Abschwung eines K-Zyklus dazu: Es werden Unmengen an Energie und Geld ausgegeben um einen Produktionszuwachs von wenigen Prozent zu erreichen, mit dem Nachteil – wie jetzt – dass sie wahrscheinlich gar nicht gebraucht werden. Eigentlich eine riesige Resourcen-Verschwendung.
• 6. Kondratieff-Zyklus = Leben – Energie und Gesundheit
Der fünfte Kondratieff ging um die Jahrtausendwende zu Ende. Obwohl Steve Jobs sein IPhone und damit die App-Entwicklung erst 2008 auf den Markt gebracht hat und uns den Heimcomputer ins Telefon später auch als Uhr individualisiert hat, greift meines Erachtens diese Entwicklung erst in den nächsten Jahrzehnten. Natürlich hat die APP-Entwicklung schon jetzt vieles in unserer Komfortzone geändert – egal ob Rasenroboter, Gesundheits-APP, Einkaufsliste mit Kühlschrank kombiniert, Eigenheim-Überwachung bis hin zu Sound-APP, oder Bank-App mit direkter Bezahlung – was man nicht alles mit dem eigenen Phone so steuern und überwachen kann.
Jenes Überwachen, das uns gerade in den letzten Jahren Schritt für Schritt mehr an persönlicher Freiheit abgerungen hat und nun in der Corona-Krise sogar vor einer möglichen Ansteckungsgefahr warnt – oder wie in China – ohne Handy-App kein privates Leben in der Öffentlichkeit mehr möglich.
Sowohl Erik Händeler in seinem Buch „Geschichte der Zukunft“ erschienen im Jahre 2003 als auch Leo Nefiodow in seinem 1996 veröffentlichen Klassiker „Der 6. Kondratieff“ gehen in ihren Werken davon aus, dass sich der neue Struktur-Zyklus mit dem Thema Gesundheit der Motor für den Wandel ist. Gesund bleiben und länger leben – so das Motto. „Die Gesundheitswirtschaft gehört zu den größten Branchen der Welt. In 2014 flossen weltweit 12.000 Milliarden US-Dollar in diesen Sektor. Die Auswirkungen auf den Arbeitsmarkt waren entsprechend. Mit mehr als 22 Millionen Beschäftigten in 2014 war die Gesundheitswirtschaft einer der größten Arbeitgeber in den USA und in anderen Ländern. Zwischen 2004 und 2014 sind 53,8 Prozent aller neuen Arbeitsplätze in den USA im Gesundheitswesen entstanden“, so Leo Nefiodow auf seiner Homepage. Der Antriebsmotor für den 6. Konrdratieff-Zyklus „ist die Gesundheitswirtschaft, ihre Basisinnovationen sind die Biotechnologie und die psychosoziale Gesundheit.“
Ich möchte hier noch weiter gehen vor allem hier universaler denken. Denn aus meinen Erfahrungen mit den K-Zyklen entstehen Basisinnovationen für den nächsten Zyklus aus einem Mangel an Produktions-, Rohstoff- oder auch Wissensmittel. Noch dazu, das ist auch der Grund warum ich hier den einen oder anderen Zyklus etwas ausführlicher beschrieben habe, die grundlegenden Erfindungen bzw. Basisinnovationen finden bereits zum Teil zur Mitte des vorigen Kondratief-Zyklus statt.
Betrachten wir nun den Mangel, den wir schon im 5. Kondratieff-Zyklus finden können. Meines Erachtens besteht der Mangel im Überbegriff Energie.
Energie das Thema im 6. Kondratieff-Zyklus
Egal ob mit Rohöl aber auch Strom – Ausstieg aus der Atomkraft, der Kohleverbrennung, Übergang auf Photovoltaik und Windenergie mit dem Problem der Stromtrassenführung zwischen Nord- und Süd-Deutschland bzw. der Verbund-Ringleitung in Österreich in Salzburg – zeigen einen sehr goßen Mangel an. Auf der anderen Seite – noch viel mehr Windräder und ein Ausbau davon wird auch schwierig werden. Dagegen Photovoltaik auf jedem Dach könnte zu einer autarkeren, dezentralisierteren und dadurch auch regionalen Sichtweise führen.
Generell wird der Umgang sowohl mit den Resourcen als auch mit der Umwelt ein Kernthema sein.
Wir sind nämlich auch mit der Physik am Ende. Wir haben die physikalischen Grenzen des Machbaren erreicht. Verbrennungsmotoren mit noch weniger Schadstoffausstoß ist fast nicht mehr möglich, noch schnellere Druckmaschinen geht nicht (ich komme aus dem Druckgewerbe – wir sind mittlerweile beim Drucken von 19.000 Bögen in der Stunde angelangt, mehr geht nicht weil das Papier zu viel Luftwiderstand hat.), noch tiefere Erdölbohrungen zur Gewinnung des Rohstoffes gehen nicht (11.680 Meter), noch größere Flieger wie den A-480 braucht keiner, noch größere Container- und Kreuzfahrtschiffe rechnen sich nicht mehr, noch mehr Düngemittel auf den Felder austragen ist dauerhaft nicht sinnvoll. Insofern haben wir das Ende der Industriellen Zeit erreicht. (siehe auch Beitrag Jupiter-Saturn Zyklus über 200 Jahre in den Erzeichen).
Aber auch bei unseren Lebensmitteln geht es um Energie. Denn nur wer gute Energie zu sich führt, wird selbst die richtige Energie ausstrahlen. Insofern wird der Trend Richtung vegetarisch mehr werden. Aber die Zukunft für Fleischessen wird die Invitro-Produktion sein. Byond meat und Beneath meat sind bereits groß im Amerikanischen Markt vertreten. Für Europa sehe ich hier die Chance wieder für die Bioprodukte direkt vom Bauernhof – ist schon seit einigen Jahren im Gange mit eine Art Ab Hof Verkauf in der Stadt. (hat auch mit dem Zyklus Uranus in Stier zu tun (2018/19 bis 2026 ) – siehe eigener Beitrag.
Egal ob Physiotherapeut, Masseur oder Gesundheits-Coach es geht generell in die individuelle Gesundheitsprophylaxe – insofern auch wieder die richtige Energie Versorge und Vorsorge. Und bei den Medikamenten, sollten wir wirklich welche benötigen, werden wir auf individuelle abgestimmte Präparate zurückgreifen und nicht so wie jetzt einen Medizinhammer für alle Menschengruppen und Menschenalter drüber stülpen. (Neptun Zyklus durch sein Zeichen Fisch).
Und in der Arbeitswelt stimmt die Energie schon seit langem nicht mehr. Wir hetzen von Monat zu Monat um unsere Deckungsbeiträge zu erwirtschaften. In Österreich – ein Hochlohnland – müssen die Unternehmer in 12 Monaten 14 Monate Gehälter finanzieren.
Und so wie in unserer Branche (Druckerei, Werbe- und Veranstaltungsbranche) mittlerweile mindestens 4 Monate (Jänner, Februar, Juli, August) davon Verluste eingefahren werden, um in den restlichen Monaten mit Mehraufwand der Mitarbeitern am Ende des Jahres ein Gewinn von 1 bis 2 Prozent vom Umsatz übrigbleibt. Und das geht neben den Unternehmern auch auf Kosten der kompetenten Mitarbeiter, die einem Gesamtdruck ausgeliefert sind, der sich dann in ein Burn-Out irgendwann auflöst. Der Hamster im Hamsterrad hat sich gerade selbst überholt … (Ende Pluto durch das Steinbockzeichen [2008 bis 2023/24])
Eines ist, glaube ich ganz klar – diese Entertainment- & Traum- & Schein-Gesellschaft, die wir uns in den letzten Jahrzehnten aufgebaut haben, wird zukünftig eingeschränkt, wenn nicht sogar vorbei sein. Es geht wieder mehr um uns selbst und damit haben wir nicht nur kostbare Zeit gewonnen, sondern auch die richtige Energie für uns selbst zur Verfügung.
Wir können endlich zu uns selbst finden. Eine Zukunftsvision wäre diesbezüglich, Jeder von uns hat die Aufgabe seine Fähigkeiten, die ihm das Universum geschenkt hat, herauszufinden. Natürlich ist das ein Prozess der dauert. Oft Jahre, wenn nicht Jahrzehnte, wenn man überhaupt die Chance bekommt slebst auf seine Fähigkeiten drauf zu kommen.
Aber es ist nicht nur eine persönliche sondern auch eine gesellschaftspolitische Entscheidung, ob dafür der Weg frei gemacht wird. Einer der Wege wäre dazu auch die staatliche Unterstützung (Alimentation) durch ein generelles Grundeinkommen. Natürlich denkt da gleich jeder wieder an Couchsitzen, Faulenzen und sich Gut gehen lassen. Aber: Wenn diese Fähigkeitsfindung aber auch mit einem Einbringen und dem Rückbringen der eigenen Fähigkeiten ins System einhergeht, dann ist der richtige Energie-Ausgleich auch vorhanden.
Für mich ist dies nur zum Teil Zukunftsmusik – für mich wäre dies ein Prozess und ein neues System konkret ab den Jahren 2023 / 2024 bis 2050, wenn Pluto in den Wassermann tritt.
Natürlich ist dies Revolutionär – aber wenn er durch den Wassermann läuft, dann herrscht hier Uranus und er steht für neue Ideen, neue Konzepte, aber auch sollte er auf Widerstand mit erhöhtem Staudruck stoßen, dann kann daraus schon einmal Revolution entstehen.
So geschehen im letzten Zyklus, als Pluto den Wassermann durchquerte. Das war damals, als es zur französischen Revolution gekommen ist. Siehe eigener Artikel. Jedenfalls Freiheit, Gleichheit, Brüderlichkeit könnte uns durchwegs dieses mal auch wieder begleiten. Das ganze gepaart mit den Inkredienzien von künstlicher Intelligenz, der Generation Y, die sich mehr in der Share-Gesellschaft als in der Besitz-Gesellschaft wohl fühlt und bei einem staatlichen Grundgehalt wird ein Mix für den neuen Kondratieff-Zyklus sein.
Es wird meines Erachtens das erste Mal in der über 1000 jährigen Wirtschaftzyklen-Reihe sein, dass wir nicht eine Erfindung in Form einer Maschine benötigen, die diesen Zyklus dominieren, sondern es wird um uns als Menschen, als Menschheit gehen.
Ein Paradigmentwechsel, ein neuer Schritt in der Geschichte, ein Reset zurück zum Leben.
Im Zyklenplan kann man die Zusammenhänge zwischen Kondratieff und gewissen Planetenzyklen erkennen. Ganz im Konkreten ist sind dies die zwei langen Zyklen zwischen Saturn – Pluto (35 bis 37 Jahre) und dem Jubiter – Satunr Zyklus (20 Jahre). Sie beeinflussen den Kondratieff-Zyklus. Ich hab dies mit dem Zyklenplan – link untenterhalb – visualisiert.
Schon vor vielen Jahren war ich mit meiner These mit immer weniger Menschen immer schneller und immer mehr leisten nicht ernst genommen worden. Wir sehen unseren Schatten
noch klein am Horizont, aber steigen wir nicht in allen Bereichen auf die Bremse so ist der Schatten weg und wir verlieren den kompletten Bezug auf alles. So heißt der Titel in meinen Recherchen: Die Welt verändern – time for future! Die Chance einen Reset in allen Bereichen
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